Angela Merkel is not assured of the support Thursday of every member of his majority in the vote on enlargement of the European financial stability. Eventually, the disagreements of the German right could bring down Merkel. German Chancellor Angela Merkel (here in Berlin in March 2011)
Like its French counterpart, the German government is on the verge of a nervous breakdown. But not for the same reasons. Thursday, September 29, members of the Bundestag should indeed decide on the expansion of resources and powers of the European financial stability. But this parliamentary ratification, which is passed as a letter mailed on September 8 in the National Assembly, is turning to the government crisis in Germany.Indeed, the Chancellor of more and more difficult to admit to his troops that the exponential growth of the financial commitment of Germany is the right remedy to save the euro area.
The majority of Merkel in danger
The opposition Social Democratic and Green has announced that it would vote in favor of this expansion, advocated by Angela Merkel, the positive outcome of the vote tomorrow no doubt. In contrast, the German Chancellor is not ensured that all members of his majority will support it. Placed with an absolute majority of 311 votes and a government camp of 330 MPs, the Chancellor can afford 19 defections. However, in a simulated voting conducted Tuesday morning by the conservative group, 13 members refused to support the text (11 against and 2 abstentions).The result has triggered a panic because we know that a number of Liberal MPs, at least two, preparing to vote against enlargement. Even if Merkel does not consider tomorrow's vote as a vote of confidence, the failure to unite under its banner all its troops, greatly weaken its power and policy space. This would also strengthen the camp of the opponents of the European program of rescue of Greece and the euro zone set, which already furbished to its weapons of votes to be held in the coming months (second aid to Greece in October 2011 and ratification Mechanism of the European Financial Stability in 2012).
A battle beyond the partisan logic
How to save Greece and the euro area? Two opposing camps on this issue.On the one hand the supporters of a response that requires an enhanced European integration, and therefore a financial risk-sharing. On the other, the advocates of respect for economic laws which, even if they do not always admit it, only the bankruptcy of Greece can help resolve the situation. "The first camp believes that the bankruptcy of Greece or leaving the Euro would cause a chain reaction that could lead to the breakup of the euro area, why not even the European Union in its current scope.Those, that is to say, Angela Merkel, a part of the Right but also labor, big bosses, the SPD and the Greens are in favor of a European rescue but also the creation of a European economic government, "said Thomas Hanke, director of the section Ideas and Debates of the Handelsblatt, the first German economic daily.
The second camp, the opponents, brings together a number of economists and academics already skeptical during the creation of the euro, the world of SMEs, particularly furious against banks and international finance and a still small but growing number of members of the majority.Member of the latter camp, the economist Hans Werner Sinn, president of the influential Institute of Economic Research in Munich (IFO), estimated that the current financial crisis is a "poker game between Western capitalists and Germany, a game where it is above all question of who will bear the junk bonds of the countries of southern Europe. " For Mr. Sinn, who spares no effort to criticize the European Merkel and her great financier Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany, taking part in the bailout of the European Union, is taking on his shoulders financial risk "barely controllable" and to sacrifice its solvency.
A member who can blow Merkel
Angela Merkel, the psychodrama experience in recent days, however, is nothing compared to what awaits if the Liberal Frank Schäffler has its way.With his hair cut very neat, thin glasses and his tie knotted impeccably, M. Schäffler is not a revolutionary. But this middle-aged native of Westphalia is on track to blow up the government of Angela Merkel. Not known until 2010, when it scandalized by offering the sale of the Greek islands. For Liberal pure juice, rescue scenarios of Greece and the Euro being hatched are simply unacceptable.
"He who takes risks must also bear responsibility. It is a basic principle of market economy. It is not good that states negligent and that private investors are betting more and more about the fact that if things go wrong, it will save them well, "said he. After being the only member of the FDP voted against the first aid to Greece, he founded the movement "Renewal liberal" who wants to help his party regain the FDP liberal roots.Eleven members have followed. It's little, but his voice begins to wear.
Today, Frank Schäffler will do everything to prevent that from becoming EFSF in 2012/2013, in a permanent structure called the European Stability Mechanism (SPM). In early September, it has launched a petition for the holding of a referendum within his party. Since then, the affluent and the signatures for this referendum is no longer in doubt. if the position of M. Schäffler prevails, ministers and MPs of the Liberal party will be required to block the European commitments made by their own government. In short, they help block the German and disown Angela Merkel. This will have a hard time to stay in power and avoid the calling of early elections.
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