Paris, London and Berlin have all chances to win their battle to impose on the EU budget from 2014 to 2020 a fierce austerity measures, the risk of weakening the European construction.
The rise of eurosceptic sentiment, the cuts that mark all budgets rolled by the crisis and a sense of powerlessness of the European authorities deal with these phenomena explain this result, inevitable for analysts.
The European Commission will present its proposals on June 29 for "financial perspectives" from 2014 to 2020, giving the start of negotiations which have always turned to the psychodrama in the past when the economic environment was more favorable.
Before you even know these proposals, the countries that contribute most to the budget of the European Union, launched a very clear warning to the authorities of Brussels.
In December, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland have asked that the EU budget has stabilized over the entire period 2014-2020.
Traveling to Brussels on April 14, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon has pushed the nail.
"We call for the EU budget the same effort as that required for national budgets, that is to say, the stability of expenditure," he said.
NATIONAL DEFICIT Abyssal
Face Abyssal national deficits at home, the "net contributors" from the European Union fully intend to minimize costs at European level.
"We're in a situation unacceptable in the sense 'Thatcherite' of the term," also highlights a top French diplomat, referring to the behavior of Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s, demanded that he return his "money."
With some seven billion euros per year net contribution – the difference between the payments and transfers from Brussels – the equivalent of the French budget of Justice, France considers paying too much.
European Commissioner for Budget, Janusz Lewandowski, had a foretaste of what awaits in attracting a deluge of criticism when he presented Wednesday its preliminary draft budget for 2012, up 4.9 % to 132.7 billion euros.
"It is true that we are caught in friendly fire from a number of Member States," he joked.
The phenomenon is aggravated by increased mistrust vis-à-vis the Union, as evidenced by all the polls and the rise of populist anti-European.
In France, Marine Le Pen, who has a good chance of being in the second round of presidential elections in 2012 are to believe recent polls, is campaigning on the theme of the output of the euro.
If the Scandinavian countries like Sweden and Denmark have never been among the enthusiasts of European integration, Finns, good students in the class so far, have sent a real signal of defiance vis-à-vis the EU legislation at the April 18.
NOT SO DIFFICULT
The True Finns Party won 19% of the vote and threatens to block EU mechanisms for financial assistance to countries in difficulty in the euro area, such as Portugal.The Finnish Parliament is to vote on such plans.
In addition, countries that succeed in the rotating presidency of the EU during the negotiations from July 2011 to the end of 2012 (Poland, Denmark and Cyprus) are likely to be overwhelmed by the heavyweights of the EU.
To top it all, France and Germany will experience crucial elections in 2012 and Poles go to the polls during their EU presidency.
"We have never had as difficult a debate on the financial perspective," predicted a Polish diplomat who feared the worst."We can not paralyze the European Union in a debate as devastating for two years."
Faced with this configuration for less explosive, the European Commission attempts to defend his arguments to avoid having to manage a reduced budget while funding requests unforeseen risk of exploding, the "Arab Spring" and the debt crisis requiring Europeans to get involved.
His officials stressed that only four out of 27 countries (Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain) have frozen their budgets, all others, including France, considering an increase.
They insist that the EU budget represents only a hundredth of the European GDP and it consists of capital expenditure, including the "cohesion funds" in favor of poor areas (57 billion euros in 2012 ), tied with agricultural expenditure.
MORE OFFICERS Europhil
Countries that joined the EU in 2004 consider a freeze on spending from 2014 to 2020 would represent a breach of contract, since they joined the Union in exchange for the promise it would help them catch up structural.
"But we are in a context where most member states will never forget that the common interest and will look at their immediate financial interest," said one European diplomat.
The Commission relies on the divisions that may occur between countries, like France, want to maintain a strong agricultural policy, and those who, like the United Kingdom intends to use the negotiations to give the coup de grace Common Agricultural Policy.
France and the UK are also at loggerheads on the "discount" of several British billion obtained through London on its budget contribution.
But the EU executive knows that the heavyweights of Europe will eventually agree – the worst in deciding to grant a rebate to all rich countries, including France.
In this context, the Commission officials acknowledge they can no longer as in the past set the bar very high in the hope of getting satisfaction on some of their demands and demonstrate a degree of fatalism.
"We must be responsible in our proposal and we know that the budget will remain at 1% of GDP," admits one of its leaders. "The generation of Europhile ready to defend the European project no longer exists."
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