The main effort of fiscal consolidation in France remains to be done and the authorities must act quickly to prevent a drift of public debt, warns the ECA.
In its annual report Thursday, she underlines the exceptional factors that allow the government hoped to reduce the public deficit to 6.0% of GDP end 2011 against 7.7% in late 2010.
As for the European commitment of France to reach 3.0% in late 2013, "this objective can not be achieved without new relief," she writes.
For 2011, the Court found "insufficient" the recovery effort that it considers to 7.5 billion euros, while it would reduce it by at least 20 billion annually, equivalent to a point of GDP, the structural deficit (that is to say, outside economic factors).
"An effort of this magnitude is necessary to quickly stop the growth of public debt," she said."It could be a temporary economic cost, but a sufficiently strong and rapid recovery would probably cost much higher."
The decline of 1.7 percent of GDP deficit expected this year by the government "based on assumptions of growth and government revenue rather favorable," said the Court, which mainly stresses that "this decrease is much more cyclical and exceptional (like the end of the recovery plan) that measures sustainable. "
The government thus provides an economic growth of 2.0% this year, a forecast than those of almost all economists and international institutions.
After a limited recovery to 1.5% last year and acquired a growth of only 0.5% in late 2010, this goal seems more elusive, while the approach of presidential and legislative elections of 2012 may to affect the deficit.
However, "we believe that the target of 6% in 2011 can be achieved, we do not question," said Didier Migaud, first president of the Court, presenting the report.
LARGE-SCALE REFORMS
After 2011, "the deficit and public debt are likely to deviate significantly from the expected path of the planning law if new remedies are not taken quickly," says the Court of Auditors.
France has pledged to reduce its deficit to 4.6% at end 2012, 3.0% and 2.0% end 2013 end 2014.Public debt as the government would begin to decline in 2013, when it would reach 86.8% of GDP from 87.4% and 86.2% end 2012 end 2011.
But the Court said, "advanced economies are described in too general to be tabulated and reconciled with the expected € 50 billion" in 2012-2014.
"The recovery of public accounts will only reaching reforms," she adds.
The path of deficit reduction, as determined by the government with the desire not to kill the takeover by a sharp drop in spending or a sharp increase in taxes is for the time judged credible by observers and financial players.
But they also warn that any deviation from this path – an old French habit – would put France under pressure as lenders might then require higher returns to finance its debt.
The law of public finance program retains a target of 2011-2014 spending growth of 0.8% per year in volume.The State is also supposed to freeze spending in value excluding interest expense and pension.
The Court identified five billion euros in savings in budget documents of the 13 billion needed to limit spending increases in the proportion expected this year.
She said the spending growth should be 0.5% in 2011 but 1.4% excluding cyclical or exceptional, exceeding the target limit of 0.8%.
It is estimated that between plus and minus 0.2 percentage points of GDP contribution of public expenditure to changes in the structural balance this year, far from the effort needed to reach 0.6 point reduction in the structural deficit that advocates.
The Court further to 0.4 percentage points of GDP higher sustainable harvest expected in budget documents.
Referring to the proposed introduction of a "golden rule" of deficit reduction required by the Government, the Court noted that the rules are "useful" but "may not be enough to ensure recovery of public accounts that will only of large-scale reforms. "
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