The economic crisis relatively unscathed employment in France in 2008 and 2009 but, in return, will resume a slow and moderate effect on staffing levels, concludes a study by the Center for Strategic Analysis (CSA) released Tuesday .
This body attached to the Prime Minister believes it should wait until 2015 to regain the peak employment before the outbreak of the crisis.And this improvement should focus initially on temporary employment and temporary work.
The study identifies four major trends likely to "irrigate" the medium-term employment in France and to identify potential pools of job creation: the "servicization" and the "greening" of the economy, services to the person and the "cognitive jobs" (research and development, design, engineering, architecture, marketing and advertising).
The ACS estimates between 450,000 and 550,000 jobs lost in the market sectors since the crisis began.
"This figure, although considerable, remains far below that were predicting the various institutes and observatories conditions in mid-2009," says he, referring to orders of magnitude close to or greater than one million jobs destroyed.
The unemployment rate in France reached a peak of 9.6% in the fourth quarter of 2009 according to INSEE statistics, against 7.2% in the second quarter 2008 before the outbreak of the global financial crisis.He returned to 9.3% in the second quarter of this year.
Firms, say the authors of the study of CAS, were mainly used mechanisms "detention" of their labor, as partial unemployment, reducing overtime or that the interim.Employees in stable contracts and have been "relatively unaffected by job losses since 2008.
If the impact of the crisis on the workforce has been largely depreciated, the study considers "plausible prospect of low growth and job creation in the medium term", that is to say over the period 2010 – 2013.
The ACTING AMONG THE PROMISING SECTORS
Companies should indeed continue to use the interim and temporary employment to meet the expected increase in demand.
For CAS, the return to net new permanent jobs is possible from mid-2011, and again, "if the recovery continues on a pace means, without significant relapse."
Based on a growth assumption of 2% for 2011 and 1.6% for subsequent years, the CAS expects 513,000 new jobs in sectors mainly 2011-2015, which amounts to compensate for the destruction of positions related to the crisis.
Job creation could reach 712,000 assuming 2% growth per year.
For the authors of the study, the recovery in employment will be paid in part by the rebound "mechanics" of internationally-oriented sectors, partly by the development of other sectors, including services or chains "green".
The retail sector shows projections include several industries already hard hit by the crisis should continue to cut jobs, like auto, property, equipment or pharmaceuticals, which have rebounded strongly since the low point in early 2009.
In contrast, construction, consulting and assistance, personal services and retailing are among the areas considered most promising in terms of potential for job creation.
But the major differences between the study area of "operational", which includes the interim, with 218,000 new posts expected for 2010-2015.
Based on these projections, the CAS calls on the one hand the continuation of policies of "security" of careers and "flexicurity", but also more targeted approaches in territorial terms, and professionals.
Xavier Bertrand, the new Labour Minister, assured last week that the job would be a critical issue by the presidential and legislative elections of 2012.
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